AI failures · Model failure

Tesla Full Self-Driving — NHTSA Upgrades Reduced-Visibility Probe to Engineering Analysis EA26-002

Verified Checked against its sources on October 16, 2026 3 sources quoted

Where it happened: United States
Organization: Tesla, Inc.
Date: PE24-031 opened October 17, 2024; upgraded to EA26-002 on March 18, 2026
Function: Driver assistance
Where it happened: Vehicle operation
System: Tesla Full Self-Driving (Beta and Supervised), camera-only
Technology: Machine learning
Type of failure: Model failure
Caught by: A regulator

Summary

NHTSA's Office of Defects Investigation opened Preliminary Evaluation PE24-031 on October 17, 2024, into Tesla Full Self-Driving crashes in reduced visibility, covering an estimated 2,410,002 vehicles and four crashes, one fatal. On March 18, 2026, it closed the evaluation and opened Engineering Analysis EA26-002 covering an estimated 3,203,754 vehicles and nine incidents (one fatal). The concern is that FSD's degradation detection did not recognise conditions such as glare and airborne obscurants that impaired the cameras, or warn the driver, until immediately before a crash.

Consequence

NHTSA upgraded the investigation to an Engineering Analysis on March 18, 2026

Who caught it A regulatorFound outside the organization

Analysis

What could have been done

Controls over input data

Inputs and source data are complete, current and fit for the use before the AI acts on them.

NHTSA's stated concern in its open engineering analysis is that, in the crashes it reviewed, the system did not detect conditions impairing camera visibility, or alert that camera performance had deteriorated, until immediately before the crash.

What would likely have prevented it

Define the input conditions a system needs to operate and make it detect and report when they are not met, early enough for a person to take over.

What would likely have caught it earlier

Analyse field incidents for degraded-input conditions and escalate a recurring pattern to the system owner for review.

Key dates

March 18, 2026Event
October 16, 2026Checked against sources
October 18, 2026Checked against sources
October 21, 2026Checked against sources

Developments are added when the record is reviewed. Next review: January 15, 2027.

Evidence

Each passage is quoted from its source. The quoted passages are re-checked against the live pages every month.

In the crashes that ODI has reviewed, the system did not detect common roadway conditions that impaired camera visibility and/or provide alerts when camera performance had deteriorated until immediately before the crash occurred.

Supports: Defect theory

3,203,754 (Estimated)

Supports: EA26002 population about 3.2 million

All Incidents: 0 2 0 7 9 0

Supports: Nine incidents in the EA26002 failure report summary (same table lists one fatality incident)

ODI Resume, EA26002: FSD Collisions in Reduced Roadway Visibility Conditions NHTSA Office of Defects Investigation Primary source
10/17/2024 Date 03/18/2026

Supports: PE24031 opened October 17, 2024, and closed March 18, 2026, on upgrade to an Engineering Analysis

ODI Resume, PE24031 closing NHTSA Office of Defects Investigation Primary source
Population: 2,410,002 (Estimated)

Supports: Original population of about 2.4 million

ODI Resume, PE24031 opening NHTSA Office of Defects Investigation Primary source

Suggested citation. Eminence Scan, “Tesla Full Self-Driving — NHTSA Upgrades Reduced-Visibility Probe to Engineering Analysis EA26-002”, Eminence Growth Solutions, last verified October 16, 2026, https://eminencegrowthsolutions.com/tools/eminence-scan/record/fail-090/.

Using our research: you may read and quote Eminence Scan with credit to “Eminence Scan, Eminence Growth Solutions” and a link; all other rights reserved. Terms: Using our research.

Spotted an error, or a development we have missed? Report a correction. How we check records: research methodology.